The Digital Ground Game Newsletter October 23rd

Recapping Previously Covered Races: Where are they now?

For the final issue of The Digital Ground Game Newsletter before the midterm elections, we’ll briefly revisit each of the races covered this year. I’ll highlight recent news stories about each candidate and include some of their latest polls. Just for fun: I’ll also add a percentage rating of how likely I think that the Democrat is to win. Considering the volume of races to go over, I’ll keep the coverage of each one relatively brief.  This is also Digital Ground Game’s final reminder to readers: if you plan to vote by mail, send your ballots as early as possible. It’s unclear what impact the Trump administration’s meddling will have on mail-in ballots, but it never hurts to leave ample time to resolve any issues found with your ballot.

Iowa Governor - Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R)

The Iowa governor’s race has steadily gained national attention over the past few months as a possible avenue for Democrats to win redder statewide elections. Sand, Iowa’s state auditor, has held the party at arm’s length while building a pragmatic and independent image for himself as the only Democrat currently in a statewide office. For voters, his record of public service in the state also serves as a clear contrast to Lahn’s reputation as a carpetbagger ^[1]. Because farming is such a significant economic engine for Iowa, both Trump’s trade wars and his actual war in Iran have had an outsized impact there, which voters increasingly link to Republicans writ large. The growing lead Sand has in polling led Cook Political Report to change its rating of the race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic back in August, something we haven't seen in a statewide Iowa race in roughly 15 years ^[2].

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 65%

Montana 1 - Sam Forstag (D) vs Aaron Flint (R)

When I covered the Montana 1st race back in April, the primaries had not yet taken place. Such is my luck: Sam Forstag, now the Democratic nominee, is the only one of the four major primary candidates I opted not to cover. His work as a smokejumper — a type of firefighter who parachutes in to combat wildfires — gives him a strong connection to the issue of protecting public lands: this is significant for Montanans as the federal government owns/manages about 30% of the land in the state. He also previously worked as a lobbyist; this experience is relevant to the bureaucratic work he’d be doing in Congress ^[3]. While generic ballot polling in the district consistently returns a Republican advantage, when the candidates’ names are included, the race appears to be a dead heat.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 50%

Texas 23 - Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R)

Very little news has come from this race since I covered it earlier this year after incumbent Tony Gonzales dropped out of the race. More controversial statements have surfaced from Herrera’s history as a gun-focused content creator. He and some Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson, have dismissed them as part of an online persona ^[4]. Despite the district’s 15-point margin for Trump in 2024, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has included it on its “Districts in Play” list. The Texas Tribune suggests this was likely because of the district’s large Hispanic population and their shift away from Republicans in the second Trump term, as well as Democrats’ optimism about running against Herrera ^[5]. Cook Political Report also moved its rating for the race from Solidly Republican to Likely Republican back in March, adding to the signals that Democrats might have an opening here. All that said, the district has a scarcity of public polling, so whether there’s a real chance to flip the seat this fall remains up in the air.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 35%

California 48 - Marni von Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R)

San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert was ultimately the victor in the California 48 primary. Axios’s recent Q&A with the candidates was effective at shining a light on their respective approaches in the race. Von Wilpert’s labeling of Desmond as a MAGA Republican and rubber stamp was bolstered by the fact that Desmond never mentioned Trump’s tariffs despite all his talk of combating the affordability issue in the Q&A. When asked how each candidate would be willing to break with their party, von Wilpert was able to name three specific policies, whereas Desmond only talked about his convictions generally ^[6]. Although the public polling environment for the race isn't extensive, what we can see is favorable to von Wilpert; many of the larger polling forecasters, such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, are also ranking it favorably for Democrats, which is a promising sign.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 70%

Nebraska 2 - Denise Powell (D) vs Brinker Harding (R)

Denise Powell, a political activist who co-founded the PAC Women Who Run Nebraska, narrowly won the Democratic primary over John Cavanaugh back in May. Republicans have worried from the start that without Rep. Don Bacon as a moderate holding the seat, it would be difficult to win over the largely Democratic-leaning population in the district. This fear appears to be bearing out as Election Day nears. Just based on the primary election results, Democrats have nearly a 20,000-vote advantage. Very little public polling is available for the race, but other signs point to waning confidence from Republicans that they can hold the seat without Bacon. A recent story from Punchbowl News reported that super PACs supporting Harding are scaling back spending on the race, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, which recently pulled $1.1 million in TV ads from Omaha ^[7]. The exact motivation for the funding pullback could be debated, but most commentators seem to agree that it’s a determination that the money is better spent on more winnable races.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 75%

Ohio Governor - Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

Amy Acton has held a modest lead in Ohio’s governor’s race — an impressive feat in a state Trump won by double digits. Several factors could contribute to this, but chief among them is likely candidate quality. As a result, Ramaswamy has had to navigate a somewhat fractured base. As an Indian American, he struggles with the racist extreme right in the Republican base, and his work in pharmaceutical development is a problem for the populist right that has a significant distrust of that industry. More moderate voters might also be put off by the money he made from his involvement with a failed Alzheimer's medication, a contrast Acton can draw as a physician and former public health official ^[8]. With most forecasters offering a Toss Up rating, the race is looking surprisingly favorable for Democrats.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 55%

Ohio Senate - Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R)

Many of the patterns in this election I described back in my May newsletter have held up since. The Ohio Senate race is likely going to be extremely close. Polling has shifted back and forth over the past few months, but a handful of signals could offer insight into what's happening beneath the surface. The GOP appears to be concerned about holding the seat given the surge in spending and campaign support from the Trump administration in Ohio in the last month ^[9]. Part of what’s driving this Republican response may be polling crosstabs: Brown holds a notable advantage with independent voters as well as overall favorability.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 60%

Alaska Governor - Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Bernadette Wilson (R)

When revisiting the Alaska gubernatorial election, I was surprised to find that the two candidates I viewed favorably were no longer in the running. In a primary upset, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins surged to first, surpassing front-runner Tom Begich, who then suspended his campaign to consolidate the Democratic vote in the general election ^[10]. The moderate Republican, Click Bishop ^[11], was knocked out in the primary. As a result, three standard issue Republicans are competing against Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. The Republican candidates have already been at odds since the August primary, with Dave Bronson refusing to drop out despite an alleged pledge to do so. The nature of poll coverage for ranked-choice elections is somewhat muddy; the Republican vote is more divided, which can produce headlines that overstate a Democratic advantage. Combined, the three Republicans’ support is roughly even with Kreiss-Tomkins’s, and Alaska is a hard state to poll, so the outcome is difficult to predict with any confidence.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 45%

Alaska Senate - Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R)

Mary Peltola’s slogan co-opting of ‘Alaska First’ seems to be resonating as she’s held a modest but consistent lead since my June coverage. Despite the ranked-choice format, Peltola and Sullivan are the only two candidates in the Senate race with any real shot at winning. An entertaining development that came to light just days after my Alaska newsletter went live was the addition of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot — this one with a middle initial J. The race is unusually heated for an Alaska election; a recent debate culminated in the moderator threatening to cut the candidates’ mics ^[12]. Heightened national attention, driven by Alaska’s role in the fight for Senate control, may be adding pressure on the candidates.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 65%

North Carolina Senate - Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R)

Given the recent news in this election, it's easy to see why North Carolina has had a relative dearth of national Senate race coverage. Former governor Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, holds a high single-digit to low double-digit polling advantage and has significantly higher name recognition in the state than Whatley ^[13]. Spectrum News described the approach to the race as ‘cautious’ from both sides, highlighting a lack of in-person events and a gravitation toward friendly news outlets. This cautious tactic likely favors Cooper given his standing lead, and Republican Party leadership appears to agree as it canceled TV ads for Whatley ^[14]. Seeking to reach a broader audience and energize his base, Whatley spoke at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas; whether this event made a difference is hard to gauge but he’s seen no significant polling bump since the event. It’s unlikely that Cooper loses this race, barring a major shift in the polling before Election Day.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 95%

North Carolina 1 - Donald Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R)

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is a seat Republicans hoped to flip with their 2025 redistricting effort. The newly added rural regions have forced Rep. Don Davis, the incumbent, to broaden his focus to include tariffs and agriculture. Whether Republicans will finally be able to flip the long-held Democratic district is drawing a lot of attention to the region; it’s projected to be one of the most expensive House races this cycle as it approaches $40 million in campaign spending so far ^[15]. Despite these efforts, the polling in the race is muddled at best; it appears to be extremely polluted with partisan polls throwing off averages and making it difficult for forecasters to make heads or tails of the race.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 50%

North Carolina 11 - Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R)

The viability of a Democratic victory in this race improved significantly after the House Ethics Committee investigation of Rep. Chuck Edwards. The committee concluded that Edwards had “engaged in persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct toward two young female staffers.” Following the investigation’s conclusion, Rep. Edwards was censured, and a replacement candidate was selected ^[16]. Since the replacement was made, Republicans have struggled to regain their footing with recent reporting indicating Ager holds a funding lead ^[17]. Election forecasters have also begun rating the race more favorably for Democrats, though very little public polling has been released.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 55%

Michigan Governor - Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R)

The gubernatorial race between Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Secretary of State and Rep. John James is shaping up along fairly predictable battle lines. Benson is consistently criticizing James over his voting record in the House and his support for President Trump’s unpopular policies. James has largely countered with personal attacks and efforts to tie Benson to AI data centers via her husband’s role at related companies ^[18]. Even as the rhetorical mudslinging continues, Jocelyn Benson has largely maintained the polling advantage I noted in my July newsletter. The Lean Democratic rating from Cook and Sabato seems like a safe bet here.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 70%

Michigan Senate - Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)

Having won the Democratic primary, Abdul El-Sayed still appears, unfortunately, to be struggling in some of the problematic areas I highlighted earlier this year. Once the general election campaign began, attack ads appeared almost immediately to highlight his controversial connections, whether the claims were fair or not. The October 8 debate quickly devolved into bickering and accusations about each other’s finances and investments ^[19]. His recent efforts to distance himself from controversial figures like the streamer Hasan Piker are promising, but it’s still unclear whether they’ll be enough to win over moderate voters. Polling shows El-Sayed with a slight advantage in this race, but it’s not nearly where he should be based on the blue wave polls are forecasting elsewhere in this cycle.

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 50%

Maine Senate - Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R)

Maine is one of the closest Senate races where Democrats have a realistic chance of winning this cycle. The scandals surrounding Graham Platner, the original nominee, have done Maine Democrats no favors in this race. Republicans have worked to brand Troy Jackson as “Platner 2.0” given their similar politics, and the label isn't entirely unfounded as many groups that originally favored Platner backed Jackson as the replacement ^[20]. On top of that, Jackson’s lackadaisical demeanor seems to make it difficult for him to energize his supporters and portray himself as the fighter this political moment calls for. While Jackson holds a slight polling lead, it's generally within the margin of error, and Susan Collins has a well-documented reputation for outperforming her polling ^[21].

Stone’s likelihood the Democrat will win: 40%

Closer

Following the midterms, the exact nature of this newsletter might see some adjustments, so bear with me as I decide exactly how to move forward with it. Feel free to send your suggestions to my email sstonewrite@gmail.com as I’m very open to feedback. If you want more immediate, real-time updates on Digital Ground Game, be sure to keep an eye on our website or join our Discord, where you can talk to our staff directly about news and upcoming events.