Maine's Senate Race Stabilizes and Hidden Gem Elections

The Digital Ground Game Newsletter

In this edition of the Digital Ground Game Newsletter, we return to elections by exploring the current slate of candidates vying for Maine’s Senate seat, alongside a brief look at several lesser-watched elections. Following the scandal and subsequent ousting of former nominee Graham Platner, the Maine Democratic Party has settled on a replacement to rally around, fundamentally reshaping the dynamics of the race. In the following analysis, we’ll review how each of the major candidates is positioning themselves for the general election. Before digging into the Maine race, I want to quickly flag an issue regarding a recent SCOTUS ruling — one that will sound familiar to those who have kept up with the newsletter since early summer. Although the ruling seems to be quite a bit less extreme than the Watson v. RNC case decided back in June could have been, the Supreme Court’s August 24 decision once again throws into question whether the Trump administration will be able to interfere with mail-in voting this fall ^[1][2]. With this in mind, Digital Ground Game advises those who plan to vote by mail this fall to send in their ballots two or three weeks ahead of election day, where possible. This should help avoid postal delays and provide time to remedy any issues that might be raised with your ballot. I’ll continue to provide updates as the situation evolves. Still, the current uncertainty over the tangible effect this ruling will have in the midterms, we’re opting for a “better safe than sorry” approach for the time being.

Maine Senate State of Play

Despite the scandal-ridden nature of the Platner campaign, one major concern voiced during the search for a replacement was whether Platner’s grassroots support would carry over to the new nominee. Platner was firmly within the populist camp of the recent crop of Democrats and, as is often the case with such candidates, benefited from an especially fervent supporter base to propel his campaign. That said, this element can sometimes be a double-edged sword in more moderate regions; those opposed to the populist strategy would likely point to Platner’s struggle to surpass low single-digit polling leads to highlight this ^[3]. The replacement nominee, Troy Jackson, while older and a bit less dynamic, shares many of the populist elements prominent in Platner’s campaign. Seemingly reflecting Maine Democratic voters’ acceptance of Jackson, polling appears essentially unchanged following the swap. With concerns about loss of support largely assuaged, the lingering worry is whether we see a repeat of the 2020 polling environment, where Democrat Sara Gideon lost by 9 points despite her notable polling lead ^[4]. Even with the expected blue wave this year and the added benefit of Maine’s fairly blue status, Susan Collins is not someone Democrats can afford to underestimate when the stakes are this high.

Troy Jackson - D

Longtime veteran of the Maine legislature and former state Senate president, Troy Jackson is the replacement Democratic nominee for the state’s U.S. Senate race ^[5]. Jackson’s third-place finish in June’s ranked-choice gubernatorial primary likely allowed him to pivot into running for Senate fairly easily. He has strong working-class bona fides as a former logger and a history of labor rights advocacy, including notable participation in 1998 logging blockades to protest the hiring of Canadian temp workers. Bucking the insider/outsider binary we often see now, Jackson frames himself as someone who’s seen the situation from both sides; he spent over a decade as a logger and labor activist before beginning his more than 20-year career in politics. His record in the Maine legislature demonstrates well how a person’s views can evolve over time. Early in his career, Jackson was strongly opposed to things like firearm regulation and abortion rights; he even voted against a marriage equality bill in 2009. But if you track his voting record over the years, you can see his views slowly softening, and now in his 2026 Senate campaign, Jackson is very socially liberal ^[6].

The Troy Jackson for Maine website is pretty standard and easy to navigate. The “about Troy” tab is short and to the point; it breaks down different sections of his life cleanly, and it's well written. The primary difficulty I see with the site is the lack of substance on his “priorities” tab. It's common for populist candidates not to have detailed policy platforms, but this is on the extreme end of that issue. Voters clicking on the tab will be presented with a list of 11 policy slogans with no elaboration on any of them ^[7]. I’ve written previously about the lack of a clear strategy for candidates who have previously held office when it comes to policy pages, and this is another example of that issue in my view.

Lastly, with new election coverage newsletters tightening to one election each instead of two, I wanted to add a section reviewing campaign advertisements. Many of Troy Jackson's ads are pretty standard — clips of campaign rallies or news hits with some minor post-production — but one specifically stood out to me as being quite strong. The video titled “All eyes are on Maine…” on Jackson’s YouTube channel features him at a table reacting to silly fundraising emails that the Susan Collins campaign sent out ^[8]. This ad has a much more casual tone, and you can see Troy joking around and poking fun at his opponent; it's endearing and humanizes Jackson very effectively.

Susan Collins - R

The one to beat here is Susan Collins, the nearly 30-year incumbent and Maine's longest-serving member of Congress ^[9]. Looking into her family history, it’s no surprise Collins has essentially spent her entire life in politics; her parents have both served as mayor of her hometown of Caribou, and multiple members of her extended family have participated in Maine politics ^[10]. As a rare Northeastern state Republican, she has had to maintain the image of a moderate, something that's become increasingly difficult in the modern era. While Collins has periodically bucked her party over the years, her repeated failure to meaningfully address issues that directly violate her espoused beliefs has manifested the “Susan Collins is concerned” meme ^[11]. Her moderate image also took a major hit when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court in 2018. Despite this, Mainers have been steadfast over the years, handing her a nine-point victory in her 2020 election even as her popularity was declining significantly ^[12][13]. One of the strongest arguments in Collins’ favor is that her position as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee affords Maine outsized influence over federal funding, and electing Jackson would lose them that advantage.

The Susan Collins campaign website is very well organized and aesthetically pleasing, if a bit crowded in some places ^[14]. In addition to her personal history, Collins’ “About” section highlights her sticky electoral record and committee work over the years — a strategy I haven't seen from other candidates, but I’m curious how much it helps her win the trust of voters. In place of a traditional issues tab, Collins has a tab labeled “Track Record” that walks through her legislative focuses throughout her career in the Senate. It frustrates me to see an idea I’ve pushed so well-executed on a Republican campaign website, because I suggested Haley Stevens in Michigan do this with her website in my newsletter at the end of July ^[15]. Lastly, a minor part of the website but still worth mentioning: the “News” tab allows you to filter Collins’ press engagements into various categories, making it easier to find specific instances. I’d like to see this more widely adopted as well.

The ads put out by the Collins campaign are a really mixed bag ^[16]. Many are very standard ads covering funding she has secured for the state. Her attack ads seem to focus mainly on refuting Troy Jackson’s populist “outsider” approach and highlighting times he’s raised taxes in the Maine legislature. The strangest ones are a set of 5 to 15 second long videos of nature or boats with the words “Take A Maine Moment. Brought to you by Susan Collins.” I would imagine these are meant to be placed alongside short-form content like TikTok or YouTube Shorts, but they are posted in a 16:9 aspect ratio like a TV ad. I’m really curious what the theory behind the “Maine Moment” ad campaign is and whether it’ll be effective at all, so hopefully they explain the logic behind it at some point.

Strategy

Troy Jackson has sort of a low-energy vibe to him that I could see clashing with his populist strategy. There are a number of angles he could attack this from, but I'm partial to the idea of running an ad campaign that lightly pokes fun at the issue to get ahead of it. You could imagine an ad opening with Jackson on a treadmill, laying out how the powerful people in Washington need to be pushed back against. Then you record scratch to him getting out of bed, and he says something like “I hear your feedback, I talk slowly, I’m low energy, and you need a fighter.” Then you switch to him training in the gym, boxing gloves up, and he says “That’s why I’m training, so I’m ready to take on the oligarchy when you send me to Washington.” I think an ad like this would prebutt questions about his age or energy level and keep a light tone while maintaining his populist messaging. As a side benefit, this opens up a possible “Susan Collins is too old” avenue; it’s a hard sell for Jackson, but not impossible. My smaller but more immediately actionable suggestion has to do with the campaign website. Fleshing out Jackson’s policy page with at least brief explanations of the policy slogans laid out there could help boost voter trust that he has a plan going into Congress.

Less-Covered Races to Watch

For readers who are interested in supporting candidates who aren't getting the national attention of an Abdul El-Sayed or a James Talarico, we wanted to highlight some Senate candidates who haven't been in the national news as much, but are compelling nonetheless.

Josh Turek in Iowa seems to be perpetually floating just below the surface of the national consciousness, but he has a genuinely inspiring story. Born with spina bifida, he’s wheelchair-bound but is a two-time gold medalist for the U.S. Paralympics basketball team ^[17]. Polling is a toss-up at the moment ^[18], but we expect him to overperform as he recently received the endorsement of former President Obama ^[19]. Turek is turning a tight race into one of that state’s most watched political stories.

In Kansas, Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in nearly a century, but Adam Hamilton seems poised to buck that trend ^[20]. As the founder of the largest United Methodist church in the nation, he has an extensive history of public service and is a well-known figure in the community. Initially seen as a long shot, tightening polls are giving the Kansas GOP a reason to break a sweat ^[21].

Probably the candidate in the most challenging race of the three, Mississippi's Scott Colom is adopting a similar strategy to Mary Peltola’s in Alaska, with his “Put Mississippi First” slogan ^[22]. Drawing on his bona fides as a district attorney, he’s offering a tough-on-crime message alongside an economically populist agenda. Given some of the heterodox approaches of his campaign, Colom could have a real shot if a strong blue wave materializes this November ^[23].

For those interested in supporting any of the candidates above, links to their respective campaign websites can be found in the sources at the bottom of the newsletter.

Closer

Something I’ve struggled to settle on as my “Strategy” sections have evolved is how much I want to push against populist tactics as someone who personally dislikes them. With this newsletter, I’ve decided to base my suggestions on each candidate’s existing tactics, which I will continue to do in future editions. The primary reason for this is that in the unlikely scenario that a staffer of the candidate saw my article, I’d like them to think: “Oh, that's a good idea, maybe I’ll bring that up to my candidate.” I’m also always looking for reader feedback, so feel free to send your suggestions to sstonewrite@gmail.com. If you want more immediate, real time updates on Digital Ground Game, be sure to keep an eye on our website or join our Discord, where you can talk to our staff directly about news and upcoming projects.